My two cents

1. There is no way known that Abbott can possibly win the next election for the Libs.
2. Joe Hockey dodged a bullet. He’ll do much better in the next leadership vote after Abbott and the Minchinoviks lose the next election.

See a few thoughts from Pavlov’s Cat.

Categories: parties and factions

Tags: , ,

24 replies

  1. When I heard last night that Hockey had said a vote for him would mean supporting a conscience vote on the ETS I thought he’d go down. Very cleverly positioning himself so that he can say he hasn’t sold out and saving himself from the poisoned chalice while still putting himself in the running so no one can call him a Costello. I think it highly likely that one day we will have a PM named Joe. I just want a PM named Julia first.
    Julie Bishop remained very quiet through all this, and remained deputy. A little soul selling going on there? Or did she secretly despise Malcolm?

  2. I agree, but 1% of my brain is currently devoted to secret terror that Rudd’s lot will do something stupid that means Abbott gets in. OMG THE HORROR.

    • I get THE HORROR, but the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party has has more than enough depth to absorb individual fuckups. Rudd’s teflon coating will ride over a mountain of stupidity from anybody else, and if Rudd fucks up there’s Julia to take over, and if they both fuck up there’s still Anthony Albanese who’s been biding his time for years, and there’s all that talent in the Parliamentary Secretaries pool to step up to fill any gaps in the front bench: Maxine McKew, Greg Combet and Bill Shorten just for starters. I can see the possibility of either Rudd or Gillard shooting themselves in the foot over something, but if it does happen then those names above meant that it won’t be anywhere near the doom of Labor’s electoral prospects.
      Now take a similar look at the Libs in Federal Parliament and look at who they’ve got to fall back on after Abbott alienates even more of the electorate – it will be Hockey’s turn to hoist aloft the poison chalice, but what strong new talent can he call on for a fresh look for his party’s policy team? It’s still all the same faces that Australia rejected last time around.

  3. Yes, I wish everyone would stop being so absolute about the Coalition not having a chance – it reminds me of “Not even God can sink her,” and there are probably still enough icebergs around to do damage.

    • Abbott and the Minchinoviks will in some ways firm up the Coalition’s current electoral standing, because they’re closer to the general position of the Nats on the ETS/CPRS and various conservative economic policies. I just can’t see them gaining ground in the moderate centre of the electorate, and in Australian politics that’s what you have to do to win. Several people have pointed out how compulsory poll attendance changes the game here: in other countries you can just energise your base and disgust the moderates so that they stay away on voting day, so that your diehards and the opposing diehards are the only ones filling in ballots. But here in Oz everybody has to go to the polls anyway, not just the diehards, and if you have disgusted most of the average punters then they will take a moment’s fierce joy in putting you in the last position on the ballot form. Playing only to the base is not the way to win here.

  4. It scares me. Tony Abbott scares me. He is a scary man.

  5. Mindy: It’s Fred Nile. How would you know?

  6. Wait, are you telling me Abbott WON?? I loathe Turnbull as much as any stout-hearted woman, but the Mad Monk? That’s just absurd. I’ve fallen through the looking glass.

  7. I suspect it is real, although I’d like it to be a hoax.

  8. I checked a bit before I posted and though I wouldn’t swear to it I think it’s real. The link works, and you can do the survey online, and if you google it the flyer’s been up at The Tally Room for a week without anyone saying it’s a fake. And the person who authorised it is real.
    And as Lauredhel says, it is Fred Nile we’re talking about.
    .-= James Bradley´s last blog ..More Conservative Craziness =-.

  9. @tigtog
    99% of my brain agrees with you. The other 1% scuttles around madly screaming “ABBOTT NOOOOO!” and I can’t stop it. Last time he was in the news, I liked to visualise a giant eagle swooping down, picking him up by the ears and carrying him away to feed its young. I will try to return to this visualisation every time I see a picture and/or policy of his. It’s quite soothing.

  10. Mindy, Lauredhel: it’s real.
    I like to think of Fred Nile’s stuff as a rogue transmission, reflected through time and space through the van Kuiper belts and back, from somewhere in the audience at one of Billy Graham’s Sydney crusades in 1959, amplified by a factor of ten and filtered through a bottle of cheap red and three tabs of LSD, and broadcast on the PA of a hot Tangara going through Wynyard without stopping.
    I’d much rather that than the reality.

  11. The last I heard about the CDP flyer, they confirmed it was real but they “didn’t agree with everything on it.”

  12. My fanciful wish for all this drama is that Malcolm and other moderates form a ‘centre right pro republic party’ leaving the Libs to de-evolve into a ‘far-right AGW deniers, bring on Armageddon’ party which would effectively vote split the Liberals out of power for a 100 years, leaving the Greens with the balance of power in the Senate so that Labour have to negotiate with them in order to create effective legislation.
    I’m such an optimistic dreamer.

  13. Tigtog at @4 is completely right, I think. Watching Abbott has a certain grim comedy to it. The tv news stations were apparently replaying all his gaffes. Even he knows how dreadful he is, because he’s asked us to judge him from now on, not on his past.
    I though the telling moment was in his press conference when he stated, three times in a row, that he wasn’t frightened of an election. You would only do that if you were terrified deep down.

    • Julie Bishop says she voted for Turnbull, because that sort of loyalty is how she sees the role of a deputy. Wev.
      I’ve only heard about the ALP’s ad about Abbott – it doesn’t seem to be up on the official ALP website or their YouTube channel yet. Anyone got a link? And I wonder how long they’ve been splicing that one together?

  14. I agree, tigtog. I think that Hockey ran because he wanted to make it clear that he’s serious about leading the Libs someday, but I also think he quietly told a few people not to vote for him this time — because he doesn’t want to be the one falling on his sword after the next election.
    I think it highly likely that one day we will have a PM named Joe. I just want a PM named Julia first.
    Mindy — that would be fabulous. The PM named Julia, that is. I don’t care so much for Joe. 😛

    • I’m going to give the embed code a go – it might not work in comments, might have to put it in its own post.
      Your browser does not support iframes.
      Yep, looks like it needs its own post. The comments on the SMH story are sadly predictable, aren’t they?

  15. I didn’t even bother with the comments after I read one guy trying to vote no.

  16. tigtog @4, swing needed for Labor to lose majority in 2010 = 1.7%. Swing to the Libs needed to form government in their own right = 2.3%.
    Average swing against a government after their first term (since the AEC started keeping detailed 2PP stats in 1949) = 3.054%
    Don’t think we have it in the bag yet.

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