Too depressed to post

I did a lot of catching up on American feminist and political blogs today, and it’s looking more and more like the Democratic Party is allowing the factionalism between the Clinton and Obama camps to piss away electoral goodwill. Look forward to President McCain if they don’t sort it out very, very quickly.


Categories: Politics

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13 replies

  1. On the other hand, never underestimate the stupidity of Republicans:
    Paul Tomblin’s last blog post..Successories

  2. Don’t take the pissing too seriously. Pennsylvania is three weeks away and the Media haven’t had a poll result to write about for two weeks so they are writing about the horse race and the inside politics. Me, I’d prefer they write about what is going on in Pennsylvania but it’s too difficult to parachute reports into PA apparently.
    I haven’t seen much evidence that the Clinton-Obama slugfest has done lasting damage. Clinton’s negatives are up but so are Obama’s. About 1 out of 6 Clinton supporters say they would not vote for Obama if he is nominated. And about 1 out of 6 Obama supporters say they would not vote for Clinton if she were nominated. Those levels aren’t toxic and there is plenty of time to bring the losing side around.
    McCain is getting no media time and is having some trouble raising money according to press accounts. He’s not really able to take advantage of the extended fight for the nomination.

  3. I think there’s been a subtle but inexorable shift in the race in the last few weeks. Barring a hugely damaging new revelation, it’s looking clearer and clearer every day that Obama is going to be the nominee, and that sense of inevitability is having a big effect on the way that party leaders are thinking.
    So at this point the question isn’t so much what’s going to happen as how it’s going to go down. I don’t think it makes any sense for folks to try to force a resolution before Pennsylvania — nobody wants it to look like Clinton’s being muscled out. So the drip-drip-drip of pro-Obama endorsements continues, and everybody’s got their fingers crossed for a surprise Obama win in PA.
    If Obama takes Pennsylvania in three weeks, it’s over. If he comes close, expect a bunch of new big-name endorsements to come his way, and a new round of articles about how long Clinton can hold out. If Clinton does well, we go on to North Carolina and Indiana a few weeks later, with the same script.
    This race can’t end without a culminating event. There has to be a moment that convinces everyone that the story has run its course. If party leaders try to force an end without such a moment, the results will be really ugly. So everyone’s sitting tight, waiting for the signal.
    Brooklynite’s last blog post..Fathers and Daughters.

  4. Don’t despair yet. The blogs make it look like the sky is falling, but it’s not. Those of us who write for political blogs are obsessive geeks who analyze every little thing that comes down the pike. Most potential Democratic voters are not like us. They are not freaking out about the Obama/Clinton divide, because they have lives.
    True Dems will vote for the nominee, whoever it is. I’m one of them, even though I got so pissed off at the bullying of Clinton last week, I couldn’t see straight. But one thing to remember is, a lot of the bloggers are not true Dems. They’re progressive independents, far to the left of the party, who want the party to take them more seriously, because that’s a much better shot than running an independent. A lot of them see Obama as their candidate and Clinton as the establishment’s candidate, whereas I see whoever gets the damn nomination as my candidate (after supporting Clinton in the primaries). That’s cool; it’s one part of how the system works. And of course I’m all for more progressive politicians. (I just don’t happen to think Obama is one whit more progressive than Clinton.) But even though those people are a large percentage of bloggers, they’re not a large percentage of the electorate, and they’re not even members of the party they claim is being “torn apart” right now. So I, for one, am taking the blog noise with a big grain of salt.
    As Andrew Warriner pointed out, most voters will vote for the nominee, period. Polls last week showed that the same number of people want Obama to drop out as want Clinton to drop out, and it’s not that big a number. Most people just aren’t losing their minds over this. The blogs give a really warped perspective of what’s going on.
    I think the biggest threat of President McCain comes from the media’s love affair with him, not from the Clinton/Obama wars. The vast majority of voters still get their info–and not much of it–from the MSM. So if journalists and pundits don’t stop fellating McCain, we might be in trouble.
    But keep in mind that Dem turnout has been up like mad during the primaries, and BOTH Obama and Clinton have gotten more votes than McCain at this point. And even if it drags on to the convention, in terms of news cycles, August-November is a LONG time. (I mean, look at how excruciatingly long some gaps between primaries have seemed.) There’s still plenty of time to go at McCain with both barrels–media willing–between the convention and the election. All is not lost (yet) just because the bloggers are going insane.
    Kate Harding’s last blog post..OT: Another Small Glimpse of Perfection

  5. I wouldn’t worry too much at this point– nothing that Obama and Clinton say about each other is going to be worse than the mud that will be slung at whomever the eventually nominee turns out to be. Sure, if the later mud-slinging happens to echo some earlier campaign criticism, it might have slightly more weight, but I don’t think it’ll make a really significant difference, because whoever the nominee is will have already weathered that storm, if that makes sense.

  6. The mud-slinging from the GOP machine is actually one of my greatest concerns regarding an Obama nomination. Everybody already knows the worst mud that the Repubs can sling at Hillary, they’ve been slinging it for more than a decade – what else could they possibly come up with that people haven’t heard before? It won’t change her appeal to the people who already think she’s OK by one jot.
    The same cannot be said for Obama. Swiftboating could work against him in ways that it cannot be used against Hillary, because people don’t know all about him in the way that they know all about her.

  7. For the last year or so, we’ve been trying to figure out whether the US was ready to elect Tiger Woods president. Now, in the aftermath of the Jeremiah Wright stuff, we’ve learned that that’s not the question. The question is whether we’re ready to elect Martin Luther King — not the Martin of the stamps and the holiday, but the angry, righteous organizer Martin. The martin who lived and breathed and died.
    Maybe we’re not ready. Maybe it’s too much too soon. But damn it, I’m ready. I’m ready to find out. I’m ready to try. I’m ready to find out.
    Casey and I are going down to Pennsylvania to knock on doors for the primary in a couple of weeks, and come November we’ll be out again. If they’re going to bring it, let them bring it. Let’s go. Let’s do this thing. We’re ready.
    Brooklynite’s last blog post..Fathers and Daughters.

  8. Tigtog, I think that’s a really good point about Obama, especially since so many people who consider themselves “moderates” are putting him on a pedastal: all he has to do is look less than superhuman, and they’ll feel betrayed, and may well be willing to vote for McCain instead. Nonetheless, he does seem to have weathered the Jeremiah Wright stuff quite well recently, so I do have hope that he’s capable of surviving the inevitable shitstorm if he’s the nominee.

  9. Fair not – our saviour Al Gore will soon wield the spear of destiny and ride in on a white horse in a Toyota Prius!
    Tim’s last blog post..Freaky wide-eyed kitty

  10. Brooklynite:
    I think it’s admirable that you’re sufficiently engaged with one candidate to take a road-trip to knock on doors for them. That bespeaks a level of dedication on which democracy ultimately depends.
    Personally, since both current Dem frontrunners are centrist products-of-the-machine candidates, I can’t see that it makes much difference to true progressives which one wins the nomination ultimately. Either one will make a laudable enough presidential candidate with their particular strengths, and dedicated progressives will turn out just to vote against McCain, even though neither of these centrist Dems will give them enough of what they ultimately want. As Andrew says, 1 in 6 refusing to vote for the other candidate (on current polling) on either side of the Dem divide is not necessarily toxic.
    The question then becomes: which candidate will end up with the least negatives for the swing voters in the crucial swing states?
    I can’t honestly see Hillary losing votes amongst swing voters from her current position: she’s a known known, to use Rovian terminology. But who knows what the GOP is holding in their Swiftboat bank to use against Obama? If I were a USAn voter in the upcoming Democratic Party primaries, that would be enough to sway my decision. I accept that it may not necessarily be enough to sway others.

  11. There are two questions here, Tig — who should be the nominee, and who will be the nominee. I think there are reasons, good reasons, to prefer Obama, and I think there a stronger case to put an asterisk against his name when referring to him as a “centrist” than there is with Clinton.
    Having said all that, though, I wasn’t addressing myself in my other two comments to whether he’s the better candidate, because I think that’s a nearly irrelevant question at this point. Given the math and the dynamics of the race, I think it’s nearly a foregone conclusion that he will be the candidate, and I think he’s a viable candidate to run with in the fall.
    Obama’s lead in elected delegates is small, but solid. It’s very hard to imagine a scenario in which Clinton passes him there. And among the superdelegates, supposedly her firewall, he’s been having much greater success recently. Every week he gets a few more endorsements, including some very high profile ones, while she’s pretty much stalled out. He may implode — there may be a big new scandal out there — but in the absence of that, I’m pretty sure he’s our nominee.
    The question of who’s the stronger general election candidate is a big one, so I’ll leave it at there for now. I’m not at all sure how Obama is likely to do, but there are a few aspects of his campaign, and of the polling data, that give me some confidence.
    Brooklynite’s last blog post..Ah, youth.

  12. who should be the nominee, and who will be the nominee

    Fair enough. I agree, unless a fatal scandal erupts against Obama in the next weeks, he’s likely to be the nominee.
    I hope you’re right that he can ride the big waves from there on in.

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